Activity 7 - Tammy

 Develop ideas of where you could incorporate the use of Scenario Planning in your organization.

There are five different uses for scenarios including sensitivity/risk assessment, strategy evaluation, strategy development "planning foucs", strategy development without "planning focus" and skills.  And I am going to use strategic development (without planning focus) to illustrate how my organization linking scenarios to strategic planning.

The advantage of using this strategy is taking all the possible scenarios into consideration.  The approach is to develop a "resilience" strategy to deal with all the possible scenarios.

1. Identify focal issue

    I am working in an education institution.   Our college heads has to think about how we can survivor in the future and what kinds of programmes we need to offer.

2.  Search for driving forces & 3. Finding uncertainties

     Geographic scope - scenario 1

     Many local students prefer to study in Japan to learn Japanese, however, there was a Tsunami happen in 2011 and parents still worry the Tsunami will happen again.

     Besides, parents also worry radiation will bring harmful effect to their children.

      Market threat - scenario 2
      There was a global financial crisis happen in 2008 because of the Lehman Brothers.  Many people lost their savings in this matter and lack of confidence to invest in financial market since they are afraid smiliar case will happen again.


4. Formulate scenario logic
    
    Scenario 1
    - Create a Japan community college
    - Employ lecturers from Japan to work and stay in Hong Kong
    - Offer programmes in Japan languages


    Scenario 2
    - Offer professional seminars in assessing current financial market and predicting future financial market.
    - Invite famous market analysts or CEOs from financial institution to hold some talks.
    - Launch new programmes which are cooperate with the financial institution such as Hong Kong Economic Jouranl


5. Strategic analysis
   
    Scenario 1
    - Is it possible to get funding from the schools?
    - Is it easy to employ lecturers from Japan?  How much salary has to pay for?

    - How many competitors are offering programmes in Japan languages?  

      Can our schools fight against them?

    - How much course fee should be charged?

    Scenario 2
    - How can we attract the target group to attend our seminars?
    - What are the concerns of the target group towards the financial market?
    - What types of financial issues need to address in new programme?
    - Is it easy to find financial institution to cooperate with us?